Do you know the real value of the Danish hospital market and its underlying development?
By: Niels Christian Hirsch, Chief Advisor and Lars Lynne Hansen, Data Scientist, DLI MI
You should make your business decisions in consideration of the actual value of your market. For the Danish hospital market, sales data will give you part of the picture – but to make qualified decisions, you need in-depth understanding of how underlying market dynamics affect your market e.g. rebates, volume changes in the use of specific medicines, and the Danish Medicines Council’s (Medicinrådets) guidelines.
To this end, DLI MI offers unique monitoring of your sales, skills to modulate data, and competencies to apply the latest insight to paint the full picture (note 1).
Based on DLI MI sales data, we know that sales of hospital specific medicines (note 2) has grown steadily by 11 % since 2013.
However, by modulating the data to include the discounts obtained by Amgros, you obtain a more complete picture showing the real growth rate to be 8 %. As it appears, the discounts has grown by almost 1/3 from approximately 20 % to 27 % (note 3).
Even more, we project that Amgros’ cost will sum to 1.8 Bill DKK 2019. However, our analysis also shows significant differences in actual growth rates between different therapeutic areas (not shown in graph), making in-depth understanding ever more important.
Note 1: Data shows sales of agents used only in hospitals or by private specialists (20-25 % of medication sold in the hospital sector is derived from products also available in the primary sector. Such sales we have excluded from this analysis).
Note 2: Sales figures are adjusted for seasonal variation (STL decomposition) and fittet to an ARIMA model providing a forecast for 2018 and 2019.
Note 3: Source Amgros I/S